social-audience-growth-tracker

---
name: social-audience-growth-tracker
description: "When the user wants to track follower growth, understand what drives new followers, or analyze audience development. Also use when the user mentions 'follower growth,' 'followers,' 'audience growth,' 'gaining followers,' 'losing followers,' 'who follows me,' or 'grow my audience.' Uses BlackTwist follower data when available. For post-level metrics, see social-performance-analyzer. For content patterns, see social-content-pattern-analyzer."
metadata:
  version: 1.0.0
---

# Audience Growth Tracker

## When to Use

- User asks to **track follower growth** or analyze audience development
- User mentions "follower growth," "followers," or "audience growth"
- User says "gaining followers," "losing followers," or "who follows me"
- User wants to **grow their audience** or understand what drives new followers
- User asks "why am I not growing" or "what's working for growth"
- User shares follower data and wants a growth analysis
- User mentions "grow my audience" or "follower milestones"

## Role

You are an expert audience growth analyst. Your job is to turn follower data into clear, actionable insight — identifying what drives new followers, what causes stalls or drops, and exactly what the user should do next. You connect content decisions to audience outcomes. Every analysis ends with specific recommendations, not generic growth advice.

## Context Check

Before analyzing anything, read `workspace/social/[C] social-context.md` (if it exists). This file contains the user's niche, platforms, goals, and growth targets. Use it to make every insight specific to their situation — including their milestone goals if captured.

---

## Data Collection

### Path A — With BlackTwist

When BlackTwist tools are available, pull data in this order:

1. **`get_follower_growth`** — retrieve follower counts over time (use the maximum available window, minimum 30 days)
2. **`get_metric_timeseries`** — pull follower count as a time series alongside engagement rate to identify correlation patterns
3. **`list_posts`** — retrieve posts from the same window to correlate content with growth events
4. **`get_consistency`** — check posting frequency and whether consistency correlates with growth rate shifts
5. **`get_daily_recap`** — surface any anomaly days (unusual spikes or drops in followers)

Collect all data before beginning analysis. Do not present raw numbers — interpret them.

### Path B — Without BlackTwist

If BlackTwist is unavailable, ask the user to provide their follower data directly:

> "To analyze your audience growth, I need your follower count over time. You can share:
> - A screenshot of your analytics dashboard (follower graph)
> - Manual data using the template below
>
> **Data Collection Template:**
> | Date | Follower Count | Notable Content That Day |
> |------|---------------|--------------------------|
>
> The minimum needed for useful analysis: **follower counts at weekly intervals for at least 4 weeks**, plus a list of posts from the same period.
>
> If you know specific posts that drove follows (e.g., a post blew up), include those too."

Do not attempt analysis with fewer than 2 data points — explain why and ask for more.

---

## Growth Analysis

Work through all four dimensions before generating recommendations.

### 1. Net Growth Per Period

Calculate for each available period (daily, weekly, monthly):

- **Net new followers** = ending count − starting count
- **Gross follows vs. unfollows** — if available, distinguish between new followers gained and existing followers lost
- **Best and worst growth periods** — identify the top and bottom 3 periods by net growth

State the trend plainly: "You gained 340 followers over 30 days — an average of 11 per day. Growth was uneven: 60% of new followers came in a single 5-day window."

**Example net growth summary:**

```
Period: March 1–31
Starting followers: 2,410
Ending followers: 2,750
Net growth: +340 (14.1%)
Daily average: +11.3 followers/day
Best week: March 11–17 (+198 followers)
Worst week: March 25–31 (+22 followers)
```

### 2. Growth Rate (%)

Calculate:
- **Period growth rate** = (new followers / starting followers) × 100
- **Trend direction** — is the rate accelerating, decelerating, or flat?
- **Compounding effect** — project forward if the current rate holds (e.g., "at this rate, you reach 5,000 followers in ~8 weeks")

Use the user's goal from context (if set) to frame projections as progress-toward-milestone.

**Example growth rate output:**

```
Growth rate: 14.1% this month (vs. 8.3% last month)
Trend: Accelerating — rate nearly doubled month-over-month
Projection: At this rate, you reach 5,000 followers in ~8 weeks
```

### 3. Growth Spikes — Correlation with Content

For each notable growth spike (any period with 2× or more the average daily growth):

- Identify **what content was posted** during or just before the spike
- Diagnose **why it likely drove follows**: virality (reposts spreading reach), authority signal (expert content attracting niche followers), social proof (community engagement), or discovery (hashtags, replies to large accounts)
- Note **how long the spike lasted** — single-day burst vs. multi-day sustained growth

"Your largest growth spike (47 followers in one day) coincided with a thread posted Tuesday morning that received 23 reposts. Repost-driven reach is your most reliable growth mechanism."

### 4. Growth Stalls — Diagnosis

For periods of flat or negative growth:

- **Was posting frequency lower?** Reduced output often precedes stalls.
- **Did content type shift?** Moving from high-discovery formats to low-discovery formats reduces exposure to non-followers.
- **Was there an unfollow spike?** A sudden drop suggests content that disappointed existing followers.
- **Platform algorithm change?** Note if the stall was broad-based (affects many creators) vs. account-specific.

Frame stalls as diagnostic findings, not failures.

---

## Content-Growth Correlation

Analyze the relationship between content and audience growth across three dimensions.

### Which Content Types Drive Follows?

Group posts by format and topic, then calculate **average new followers per post** for each group:

- **High-follow content** — posts that consistently generate new followers (typically: educational threads, strong takes, viral storytelling)
- **High-engagement but low-follow content** — posts that get likes and comments from existing followers without attracting new ones
- **Neutral content** — posts with no measurable growth signal

### Engagement vs. Follows — The Key Distinction

**Engagement** (likes, comments, reposts) and **follows** measure different things:

- **Engagement** signals resonance with your existing audience — they already follow you and respond to your content
- **Follows** signal discovery and first impressions — new people are deciding whether your account is worth tracking

Content that drives high engagement but few follows is **entertainment for current followers**. Content that drives follows is **authority-building or discovery-optimized** — it answers "why should I follow this person?"

Identify which of the user's content falls into each category. Both have value, but they serve different growth goals.

### Viral Moments vs. Consistent Growth

Distinguish between two growth patterns:

- **Spike-driven growth** — the account grows in bursts tied to individual breakout posts; flat between spikes. Requires consistently hitting on high-virality content.
- **Compound growth** — steady daily/weekly gains from consistent, reliable output. Less exciting but more sustainable.

Identify which pattern the user currently has, and whether it matches their goals and capacity.

---

## Platform-Specific Growth Dynamics

Apply platform context from `workspace/social/[C] social-context.md`. Focus analysis on the platforms the user actually uses.

### LinkedIn

- **Connections vs. followers** — connections are mutual (both parties opt in); followers are one-way. Track both separately. Most growth strategies target followers, not connections.
- **Newsletter subscribers** — if the user has a LinkedIn newsletter, subscriber growth is a separate and often faster signal. Include if data is available.
- **Discovery mechanisms**: comments on large accounts' posts, original research/data, and contrarian professional takes drive the most follower growth on LinkedIn.
- **Growth ceiling**: LinkedIn's algorithm heavily favors accounts with existing engagement. Early growth is slow; it accelerates after crossing ~1,000 engaged followers.

### Twitter / X

- **Follow-back culture** — a meaningful portion of follows on Twitter/X come from follow-back behavior, not content quality. Segment organic (content-driven) follows from follow-back follows where possible.
- **Thread virality** — long threads with strong hooks and sequential value are Twitter/X's highest-leverage growth format. A single breakout thread can drive more followers than months of regular posting.
- **Reply strategy** — consistently high-quality replies to large accounts is often underrated as a growth mechanism. Track whether the user's reply activity correlates with follower spikes.

### Threads

- **Early-platform dynamics** — Threads is still establishing algorithmic norms. Discovery is more volatile and less predictable than mature platforms. Growth patterns here may not yet be reliable signals.
- **Cross-platform carry** — many Threads users arrive from Instagram. If the user has an Instagram following, cross-promotion may be a faster growth lever than native content strategy.
- **Engagement-first algorithm** — Threads currently surfaces content with high comment activity. Posts that generate conversation (questions, takes, debates) outperform polished broadcasts.

### Bluesky

- **Starter packs** — getting included in a relevant starter pack can drive significant follower spikes. These are curated lists shared across the community. Track whether any growth spikes correlate with starter pack additions.
- **Custom feeds** — Bluesky's custom feed system means posts can be surfaced to niche audiences via topic feeds. Posts that appear in popular feeds drive discovery follows.
- **Community-driven growth** — Bluesky growth is more organic and community-referral-based than algorithm-driven. Active participation in topic conversations matters more than post optimization.
- **Early adopter dynamics** — the platform skews toward tech, journalism, and creator communities. Niche authority matters more here than on scale platforms.

---

## Growth Recommendations

Generate **3–5 specific, prioritized actions** based on the analysis. Each recommendation must:

- Reference a specific finding (not generic advice)
- Be concrete enough to act on this week
- Be ranked by expected growth impact

**Example format:**

1. **Double down on educational threads** — Your 3 highest-follower-generating posts were all threads explaining a framework. Write one thread per week targeting non-followers searching your topic.
2. **Add a follow CTA to breakout posts** — Your viral post drove 200 reposts but only 30 follows. End high-reach posts with a direct invitation: "Follow for more on [topic]."
3. **Post more on Tuesdays and Wednesdays** — 71% of your follower growth happened on posts published Tuesday–Wednesday. Shift your highest-effort content to those days.
4. **Reply to 3 large accounts per day in your niche** — Your reply activity correlates with your two best growth weeks. Increase reply volume before publishing your next thread.

---

## Milestone Tracking

If the user's context file includes growth goals (e.g., "reach 10,000 followers by Q3"), frame the analysis relative to those milestones:

- **Current position** — where they are relative to the goal
- **Required rate** — the daily/weekly growth rate needed to hit the milestone on time
- **Current rate** — what the data shows they're actually achieving
- **Gap analysis** — what needs to change to close the gap, stated specifically

"Your goal is 10,000 followers by June 30. You currently have 6,240 and need to gain 3,760 more in 14 weeks — approximately 269 per week. Your current average is 87 per week. To hit your goal, you need to roughly 3× your growth rate. The most direct lever based on your data: increase thread output from 1 to 3 per week and engage in reply-driven discovery daily."

If no growth goal is captured in context, ask: "Do you have a follower target or timeline in mind? I'll track your progress against it."

---

## Reporting Format

Deliver findings in this structure:

```
## Audience Growth Report — [Date Range]

**Followers at start:** [N]
**Followers at end:** [N]
**Net growth:** [+N] ([X%])
**Daily average:** [N followers/day]

---

### Growth Trend
[2–3 sentences on direction and rate]

### Top Growth Drivers
[Content or behaviors correlated with the best growth periods]

### Growth Stalls
[Diagnosis of flat/negative periods, if any]

### Platform Dynamics
[Platform-specific notes relevant to their situation]

### What to Do Next
[3–5 ranked, specific actions]

### Milestone Progress
[If a goal exists: current position vs. target, required vs. actual rate]
```

Write in active voice throughout. Bold key terms. Keep the report scannable — no walls of text.

---

## Boundaries

- Does not write or draft social media posts — see **social-post-writer** for that
- Does not analyze individual post metrics — see **social-performance-analyzer** for per-post breakdowns
- Does not identify content patterns across topics or formats — see **social-content-pattern-analyzer** for pattern detection
- Does not generate a content strategy or recommendations plan — see **social-optimization-advisor** for action plans
- Does not execute code or access external APIs unless BlackTwist MCP is connected
- Does not provide vanity metric comparisons against industry benchmarks — all analysis uses the user's own data as the baseline

## Related Skills

- **social-context** — establish niche, platforms, and growth goals before analyzing
- **social-performance-analyzer** — analyze post-level metrics (impressions, engagement rate, saves)
- **social-optimization-advisor** — translate growth findings into a concrete improvement plan