plan-b

---
name: plan-b
description: Plan B framework — 6 environmental forces monitoring, pre-mortem 5-step process, scenario planning with auto-trigger points, Devil's Advocate on every proposal, 100-day gate reviews, S-curve awareness, 5 hurdles to Plan B execution, boomerang prevention. Use when preparing contingencies, monitoring environmental changes, or when the current plan shows signs of failure.
type: skill
---

# Plan B Framework

## When to Apply
- After finalizing any Strategy Kernel (mandatory)
- During periodic environmental scans
- When early warning KPIs trigger
- When buffer enters YELLOW or RED
- When the founder is emotionally attached to a single plan

## Core Framework

### 6 Environmental Forces

Monitor continuously. Any shift can invalidate the current strategy:

| Force | What to Monitor | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| **Technology** | Competitor launches, new tools, paradigm shifts | New direct competitor or substitute |
| **Cost structure** | API costs, tool pricing, entry barriers | Unit economics change >20% |
| **Customer needs** | Support themes, feature requests, win/loss | NPS drop >10 or new theme >30% of tickets |
| **Target customer** | Cohort behavior, demographic changes | Best-retaining cohort shifts segment |
| **Regulation** | Laws, compliance, industry rules | New regulation affecting operations |
| **Social mood** | Sentiment, brand perception, trends | Sentiment spike or channel backlash |

**Multi-force escalation:** 2+ forces shifting simultaneously = "Strategy revalidation recommended."

### Pre-Mortem (5-Step Process)

1. **Assume total failure:** "It is 6 months from now. This strategy has completely failed."
2. **Enumerate 3-5 specific failure causes** (concrete, not vague)
3. **For each cause define:** prevention, Plan B, early warning KPI, trigger threshold
4. **Rank by likelihood x impact**
5. **Embed triggers into monitoring** for automatic Plan B activation

### Scenario Planning with Auto-Triggers

Four scenarios with QUANTITATIVE trigger points:

| Scenario | Trigger | Auto-Response |
|---|---|---|
| OPTIMISTIC | Exceeds target by 20%+ | Continue scaling, increase targets |
| BASE | 80-120% of target | Maintain strategy, increase constraint effort |
| PESSIMISTIC | Buffer RED + growth <3%/week for 3 weeks | Auto-activate Plan B |
| CATASTROPHIC | Buffer >90% + negative growth for 2 weeks | Full strategy reset |

**Auto-activation removes bias.** Pre-commit to switching. Don't decide in the moment when sunk cost fallacy, loss aversion, and status quo bias are strongest.

### Devil's Advocate (On Every Proposal)

Standard output, not optional add-on:

```
Proposed: "Launch LinkedIn content campaign targeting CTOs"

Devil's Advocate:
  1. "LinkedIn organic reach declining ~15% YoY."
  2. "Segment data shows email outperforms for >$50K deals."
  3. "Requires ~10h/week founder time — 25% of capacity."

  Risk: MODERATE
  Plan B if underperforms: Warm intros via mutual connections.
  Review gate: 30 days.
```

### 100-Day Gate Reviews

After any Plan B activation:

```
Day 30:  [milestone] -> continue / modify / exit?
Day 60:  [milestone] -> continue / modify / exit?
Day 100: [milestone] -> continue / modify / exit?
```

Each gate has explicit, measurable decision criteria. Prevents drifting in the new plan.

### S-Curve Awareness

Monitor where each Driver/channel sits on its lifecycle:

| Stage | Agent Behavior |
|---|---|
| **Introduction** | High effort, low returns — expected. Keep investing. |
| **Growth** | Returns accelerating — **prepare Plan B NOW** |
| **Maturity** | Returns plateauing — activate diversification |
| **Decline** | Returns dropping — Plan B should already be active |

**Critical insight:** Plan B must be PREPARED during the growth phase. During decline, it's too late — you're reacting, not preparing.

### 5 Hurdles to Plan B Execution

Obstacles that prevent organizations from switching to Plan B:

| Hurdle | Description | Countermeasure |
|---|---|---|
| **Sunk cost attachment** | "We've invested too much to stop" | Pre-committed stop conditions (defined at launch) |
| **Identity attachment** | "This is my idea / my baby" | Reframe: "The goal is the outcome, not the method" |
| **Status quo bias** | "Maybe it'll turn around" | Quantitative triggers remove judgment from decision |
| **Loss aversion** | "Stopping feels like losing" | Frame as "redirecting resources to higher-impact approach" |
| **Social commitment** | "We told investors/team this plan" | Distinguish pitch narrative from operational reality |

### Boomerang Prevention

When switching to Plan B, ensure you don't oscillate back to Plan A:

```
Plan B Activation:
  1. Log WHY Plan A was abandoned (specific data, not feelings)
  2. Define conditions under which Plan A would be reconsidered
     (must be DIFFERENT conditions, not just "things got better")
  3. Set minimum commitment period for Plan B (typically 60-90 days)
  4. Track Plan B independently — don't compare to Plan A's
     peak performance (cherry-picking)
```

The agent monitors for oscillation patterns (A->B->A) and halts: "You're oscillating. Each reversal wastes accumulated progress. Commit to the current plan for [minimum period] before reconsidering."

## Decision Rules

1. **Plan B is mandatory** — no Strategy Kernel without contingency
2. **Auto-triggers are pre-committed** — quantitative, not judgment-based
3. **Devil's Advocate on every proposal** — standard output, not optional
4. **Prepare during growth** — S-curve timing is critical
5. **100-day gates after activation** — prevent drifting
6. **No oscillation** — minimum commitment period before switching back
7. **5 hurdles are psychological** — countermeasures are structural (pre-commitment, triggers)

## Anti-Patterns to Detect

| Anti-Pattern | Signal | Response |
|---|---|---|
| Single-plan thinking | No Plan B defined | "What happens if this fails? Define triggers and alternatives now." |
| Late preparation | No contingency until crisis | "S-curve: prepare Plan B during growth, not decline." |
| Bias-driven switching | Emotional reaction to single bad week | "Check against pre-committed triggers. Single-week data is noise." |
| Oscillation | A->B->A pattern | "Each reversal wastes progress. Commit for [minimum period]." |
| Plan B avoidance | Triggered conditions ignored | "Pre-committed conditions met. Present the switching decision." |
| Missing Devil's Advocate | Proposal without counter-arguments | "Every proposal includes structured counter-arguments. Add them." |