pre-mortem

---
name: pre-mortem
description: Pre-mortem analysis, scenario planning, future state narratives, and contingency frameworks. Use before finalizing any Strategy Kernel, when planning major initiatives, or when preparing Plan B triggers.
type: skill
---

# Pre-Mortem & Scenario Planning

## When to Apply
- Before finalizing any Strategy Kernel
- When planning a major initiative or Goal
- When buffer enters YELLOW zone (validate contingencies)
- When the founder is overly optimistic about a single plan
- Quarterly strategy reviews

## Core Framework

### Pre-Mortem (5-Step Process)

1. **Assume total failure:** "It is 6 months from now. This strategy has completely failed. Why?"
2. **Enumerate causes:** List 3-5 specific, concrete failure scenarios (not vague risks)
3. **For each cause, define:**
   - Prevention measure (what to do now)
   - Plan B (what to do if it happens)
   - Early warning KPI (what to watch)
   - Trigger threshold (when to act)
4. **Rank by likelihood x impact**
5. **Embed triggers into the monitoring system** so Plan B activates automatically

```
Failure cause: "LinkedIn organic saturated — ICP exhausted in target segment"
  Prevention: Track unique ICP accounts remaining; alert at <500
  Plan B: Pivot to content-first -> community -> warm intro strategy
  Early warning KPI: new connection acceptance rate declining
  Trigger: acceptance rate < 15% for 2 consecutive weeks
```

### Scenario Planning (4 Scenarios with Auto-Triggers)

Define quantitative trigger points for each scenario. When thresholds are hit, Plan B activates AUTOMATICALLY — removing human judgment to prevent bias (loss aversion, sunk cost).

| Scenario | Condition | Response |
|---|---|---|
| OPTIMISTIC | Exceeds target by 20%+ | Continue scaling. Increase targets. |
| BASE | 80-120% of target | Maintain strategy. Increase effort on constraint Driver. |
| PESSIMISTIC | 40-80% of target + buffer RED + growth <3%/week for 3 weeks | Auto-activate Plan B: pivot channel, reposition ICP, adjust pricing |
| CATASTROPHIC | <40% of target + buffer >90% + negative growth for 2 weeks | Full strategy reset: rebuild Strategy Kernel from scratch |

### Future State Narrative (PR/FAQ)

Before executing any major initiative, write success AS IF it already happened:

```
FUTURE STATE NARRATIVE:
  "It is 6 months from now. [Startup] has 100 paying enterprise
   customers. Primary channel: LinkedIn thought-leadership (28% response).
   Referral program contributed 30%. Average deal: $24K/year, 125% NDR."

INTERNAL FAQ (hard questions):
  Q: "What if LinkedIn reach declines further?"
  A: "Content -> community -> warm intro fallback (Plan B ready)"
```

Creates a three-part planning package: what success looks like (narrative) + what could go wrong (pre-mortem) + how we'll get there (strategy kernel).

### 100-Day Gate Reviews

After any Plan B activation, define measurable 100-day milestones:
- Day 30: [specific milestone] — continue/modify/exit?
- Day 60: [specific milestone] — continue/modify/exit?
- Day 100: [specific milestone] — continue/modify/exit?

Prevents drifting in the new plan. Each gate has explicit decision rules.

### S-Curve Awareness

Monitor where each Driver/channel sits on its lifecycle:
- **Introduction:** High effort, low returns — normal, keep investing
- **Growth:** Returns accelerating — prepare Plan B NOW (not during decline)
- **Maturity:** Returns plateauing — activate diversification
- **Decline:** Returns dropping — Plan B should already be active

### Devil's Advocate

Every Action proposal and Strategy Kernel includes structured counter-arguments as STANDARD output:

```
Devil's Advocate:
  1. "LinkedIn organic reach declining ~15% YoY. Channel may saturate."
  2. "Segment data shows email outperforms for enterprise deals >$50K."
  3. "Requires ~10h/week founder time — 25% of capacity."

  Risk assessment: MODERATE
  Recommendation: Proceed with 30-day review gate.
  Plan B if underperforms: Pivot to warm intros via mutual connections.
```

## Decision Rules

1. **Pre-mortem is mandatory** before any Strategy Kernel is finalized
2. **Triggers must be quantitative** — no vague "if things go badly"
3. **Auto-activation removes bias** — pre-commit to switching, don't decide in the moment
4. **Devil's Advocate is not optional** — include on every proposal
5. **S-curve timing:** Prepare Plan B during growth phase, not decline

## Anti-Patterns to Detect

| Anti-Pattern | Signal | Response |
|---|---|---|
| Single-plan thinking | No Plan B defined | "What happens if this doesn't work? Let's define triggers now." |
| Vague contingencies | "We'll figure it out" | "Contingencies need specific triggers and pre-defined responses." |
| Plan B avoidance | Emotional attachment to Plan A | "Pre-committing to triggers removes emotion from the switching decision." |
| Late Plan B prep | Preparing alternatives during decline | "S-curve: prepare alternatives during growth, not decline." |
| Optimism bias | Ignoring pre-mortem results | "The pre-mortem identified real risks. Ignoring them doesn't eliminate them." |

---

## Anticipative Execution Reminder

When applying this framework, produce the FULL output immediately. Do not ask the founder which parts to analyze or which options to consider. Infer from business context, present the complete deliverable, and let the founder react to concrete work — not abstract choices.