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npx versuz@latest install minhnv0807-ai-business-skills-skills-en-10-reverse-kpi-globalgit clone https://github.com/minhnv0807/ai-business-skills.gitcp ai-business-skills/SKILL.MD ~/.claude/skills/minhnv0807-ai-business-skills-skills-en-10-reverse-kpi-global/SKILL.md--- name: 10-reverse-kpi-global description: "Reverse KPI calculation for global marketing budgets — work backward from revenue goal to required spend. Universal math, currency-specific per region (US/EU/SEA/LATAM). 3-scenario sensitivity analysis (pessimistic/realistic/optimistic). Trigger: 'reverse KPI', 'budget calculation', 'KPI breakdown', 'marketing budget plan', 'campaign budget'." metadata: version: 1.0.0 category: strategy license: MIT triggers: - "reverse KPI" - "budget calculation" - "KPI breakdown" - "marketing budget plan" - "campaign budget" related: - product-marketing-context-global - 00-marketing-plan-global - 03-performance-eval-global - 07-marketing-report-global --- # Reverse KPI Calculation (Global) Calculate marketing budget by working backward from revenue goal — or forward from available spend to expected revenue. Universal math; currency and benchmark numbers vary per region (US/EU/SEA/LATAM). --- ## For newbies — Read this first If you've never run a reverse KPI calc: 1. **Reverse KPI = working backward from a goal.** Instead of "I'll spend $5K and see what happens," you say "I want $50K in revenue, so I need X impressions, Y leads, Z customers — therefore the budget is $W." 2. **It works in two directions:** - Backward: Revenue target → required spend (when you have a goal) - Forward: Available spend → expected revenue (when you have a budget) 3. **You always run 3 scenarios.** Pessimistic (worst case), Realistic (base case), Optimistic (best case). One number is dangerous — three numbers force you to stress-test. 4. **Conversion rates are the leverage.** Small changes in conversion (e.g., 50% → 55%) cascade up the funnel and change your budget significantly. 5. **Currency matters.** A 5% margin in USD is different in EUR, BRL, or VND. Always pick the right region variant for your benchmarks. 6. **Don't trust round numbers.** "100 leads" is suspicious — real funnels produce odd numbers like 87 or 213. 7. **Time horizon affects budget.** A $50K monthly target needs different planning than a $50K annual target. Always specify the period. --- ## Step 0 — Read context + select region variant Before calculation: 1. **Read `.agents/product-marketing-context-global.md`** — get product, AOV, region, currency, target market. 2. **Pick region variant for benchmark conversion rates and CPM/CPL:** - `variants/01-us.md` — USD, US benchmarks - `variants/02-eu.md` — EUR/GBP, EU benchmarks - `variants/03-sea.md` — USD/local, SEA benchmarks - `variants/04-latam.md` — USD/BRL/MXN, LATAM benchmarks 3. **Confirm direction:** Reverse (revenue → spend) or Forward (spend → revenue)? ### Information gathering Ask user up to 4 questions: 1. **What is the goal?** Revenue target $X/month? Or available budget $Y to allocate? 2. **Product/service and AOV?** Average order value or deal size in your currency. 3. **Industry and current channel mix?** Industry niche? Channels currently running? Any existing CPL/CPM data? 4. **Campaign duration?** 1 month? Quarter? 6 months? Phased? --- ## Two calculation directions ### Direction 1 — Reverse: Revenue → Budget Use when: "I want to hit $200K/month — how much ad spend do I need?" ``` Revenue target / AOV (average order value) = ORDERS NEEDED / Booking → Customer rate = BOOKINGS NEEDED / Lead → Booking rate = LEADS NEEDED / Click → Lead rate = CLICKS NEEDED / CTR = IMPRESSIONS NEEDED × CPM / 1000 = TOTAL AD BUDGET ``` For e-commerce (no booking step): ``` Revenue target / AOV = ORDERS NEEDED / Conversion rate = SESSIONS NEEDED (clicks) / CTR = IMPRESSIONS NEEDED × CPM / 1000 = TOTAL AD BUDGET ``` For B2B (longer funnel): ``` Revenue target / ACV (annual contract value) = CUSTOMERS NEEDED / Win rate = OPPORTUNITIES NEEDED / SQL → Opportunity rate = SQL NEEDED / MQL → SQL rate = MQL NEEDED / Lead → MQL rate = LEADS NEEDED → continue with CPL × LEADS NEEDED = SPEND ``` ### Direction 2 — Forward: Budget → Revenue Use when: "I have $50K — how much revenue can I expect?" ``` Budget / CPM × 1000 = IMPRESSIONS × CTR = CLICKS × Click → Lead rate = LEADS × Lead → Booking rate = BOOKINGS × Booking → Customer rate = ORDERS × AOV = REVENUE ``` --- ## 3-Scenario sensitivity analysis (universal) ### Scenario structure Always run three scenarios: | Variable | Pessimistic | Realistic (Base) | Optimistic | |----------|-------------|------------------|------------| | CPM | Industry avg + 30% | Industry avg | Industry avg − 20% | | Click → Lead | Industry avg − 15% | Industry avg | Industry avg + 15% | | Lead → Booking | Industry avg − 10% | Industry avg | Industry avg + 10% | | Booking → Customer | Industry avg − 10% | Industry avg | Industry avg + 10% | ### Reading the results - **Pessimistic** = budget needed for safety / FX swings / first-month learning curve - **Realistic (Base)** = the actual planning number - **Optimistic** = aspiration target, used for stretch KPI or commission triggers > Use Base for budget. Use Pessimistic as buffer. Use Optimistic as stretch goal. ### Sensitivity (which lever moves the budget most?) | Variable | Base value | Change +10% | Budget change | Sensitivity | |----------|-----------|-------------|---------------|-------------| | CPM | [#] | +10% | +10% | **Direct 1:1** | | CTR | [#]% | +10% | -9% | **High** | | Click→Lead | [#]% | +10% | -9% | **High** | | Lead→Booking | [#]% | +10% | -9% | **High** | | Booking→Customer | [#]% | +10% | -9% | **High** | | AOV | [#] | +10% | -9% (fewer orders needed) | **Indirect** | ### 80/20 rule The two highest-leverage levers are usually: 1. **CPM** — controlled by creative + targeting → optimize via A/B testing 2. **Lead → Booking** — controlled by sales/CS quality → optimize via script + response speed --- ## Break-even calculation ``` Break-even orders = Fixed costs / (AOV − Variable cost per order) Break-even days = Break-even orders / (Avg orders per day) ``` | Item | Value | |------|-------| | Fixed costs/month (rent, salary, tools, software) | [#] | | Ad spend (variable, but allocated upfront) | [#] | | Total fixed | [#] | | AOV | [#] | | Variable cost per order (COGS, shipping, fees) | [#] | | Profit per order | AOV − VarCost = [#] | | Break-even orders | Total fixed / Profit per order | | Break-even days | BE orders / 30 | | Result | Meaning | Action | |--------|---------|--------| | BE < 50% of expected orders | Safe — good margin buffer | Can scale spend | | BE = 50–80% of expected | Tight — limited margin | Optimize cost first | | BE > 80% of expected | Risky — easy to lose | Cut costs or raise AOV | --- ## Budget allocation by phase | Phase | % of budget | Duration | Goal | Primary KPI | |-------|-------------|----------|------|-------------| | **Teaser / Awareness** | 15% | Week 1 | Curiosity, brand build | Reach, video views, saves | | **Soft launch** | 20% | Week 2 | Test creative, first leads | CPL, lead, A/B test data | | **Full launch** | 40% | Weeks 3–4 | Scale winners, drive sales | ROAS, orders, revenue | | **Maintenance + retarget** | 25% | Week 5+ | Retarget, nurture, repeat | CPA, LTV, retention | ### Example allocation (budget $80K/month) | Phase | % | Amount | Days | Daily | |-------|---|--------|------|-------| | Teaser | 15% | $12K | 7 | $1,714/day | | Soft launch | 20% | $16K | 7 | $2,286/day | | Full launch | 40% | $32K | 14 | $2,286/day | | Maintenance | 25% | $20K | balance | depends on remaining days | --- ## Channel allocation principles 1. **Proven channel → 60-70% of budget.** Don't dilute by spreading evenly. 2. **New / test channel → 15-20% of budget.** Enough to gather data, not enough to bleed cash. 3. **Retarget → 10-15% of budget.** Highest ROAS — target previously engaged users. 4. **Switch channels when ROAS < 2x for 2 weeks.** Don't wait too long. --- ## ROI projection timeline | Phase | Duration | Expectation | Track | |-------|----------|-------------|-------| | Testing | Weeks 1–2 | No orders yet, testing creative + audience | CPM, CTR, CPL | | First results | Weeks 3–4 | First orders, ROAS still low | First orders, leads | | Optimization | Month 2 | ROAS improving, stabilizing | ROAS, CPA | | Scale | Month 3+ | Stable ROAS, controlled budget increases | ROAS held, revenue up | | Mature | Month 6+ | Self-running, enough data to forecast | LTV, retention, organic % | ### Rules of thumb | Rule | Explanation | |------|-------------| | First 2 weeks lose money | Learning cost — don't panic, don't pause | | Base ROAS achieved by month 2 | Month 1 is testing, don't judge ROAS yet | | Scale budget max 20%/week | Faster scaling = performance drops, CPM rises | | ROAS drops 30% when scaling | Normal — wider audience = lower conv rate | | Retarget ROAS 2-3x prospecting | Always allocate budget for retargeting | --- ## Cross-reference | Need | Skill | |------|-------| | Full marketing plan first | `00-marketing-plan-global` | | Current performance to inform calc | `03-performance-eval-global` | | Competitive spend benchmarks | `08-competitor-research-global` | | Customer insight to refine conv rates | `09-customer-insight-global` | | Post-campaign data analysis | `13-data-analysis-global` | --- ## Quality checklist Before delivering reverse KPI report: - [ ] Region variant selected — currency and benchmarks match user's market - [ ] Direction confirmed (reverse vs forward) - [ ] Industry-specific conversion rates used (not generic averages) - [ ] All 3 scenarios calculated (pessimistic, base, optimistic) - [ ] Sensitivity analysis identifies top 2 levers + how to improve them - [ ] Break-even calculated with risk grade - [ ] Phase allocation has specific timeline - [ ] Channel allocation matches industry mix - [ ] ROI timeline realistic (no "ROAS 5x in week 1" promises) - [ ] Total budget consistent across phase + channel breakdowns - [ ] Seasonality noted if campaign falls on Q4/Tet/Carnival/Black Friday - [ ] Currency conversion documented if cross-border