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[](https://versuz.dev/skills/minhnv0807-ai-business-skills-skills-vi-10-tinh-kpi-nguoc)Free SKILL.md scraped from GitHub. Clone the repo or copy the file directly into your Claude Code skills directory.
npx versuz@latest install minhnv0807-ai-business-skills-skills-vi-10-tinh-kpi-nguocgit clone https://github.com/minhnv0807/ai-business-skills.gitcp ai-business-skills/SKILL.MD ~/.claude/skills/minhnv0807-ai-business-skills-skills-vi-10-tinh-kpi-nguoc/SKILL.md--- name: 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc description: Tinh KPI nguoc tu doanh thu ve ngan sach va tinh xuoi tu ngan sach ra doanh thu — 3 kich ban, sensitivity analysis, break-even, phan bo ngan sach theo giai doan va kenh metadata: version: 2.0.0 category: performance triggers: - "tinh KPI" - "can bao nhieu ngan sach" - "tinh nguoc tu doanh thu" - "ngan sach de dat X don" - "budget calculator" - "KPI calculator" output: File .md gom bang tinh 3 kich ban, phan tich do nhay, break-even, phan bo ngan sach theo giai doan + kenh, va timeline ROI related: - 00-ke-hoach-mkt - 07-bao-cao-marketing - 03-danh-gia-hieu-suat - 08-nghien-cuu-doi-thu --- # Tinh KPI Nguoc ## Thu thap thong tin Hoi user toi da 4 cau sau truoc khi bat dau: 1. **Muc tieu la gi?** (Doanh thu X trieu/thang? Hay ngan sach co san X trieu va muon biet duoc bao nhieu don?) 2. **San pham / dich vu va gia ban?** (Gia trung binh 1 don hang — AOV) 3. **Nganh hang va kenh hien tai?** (Nganh gi? Dang chay kenh nao? Co du lieu CPMess/CPL hien tai khong?) 4. **Thoi gian chien dich?** (1 thang? 3 thang? 6 thang? Co pha theo giai doan khong?) --- ## 2 huong tinh ### Huong 1 — Tinh nguoc (Reverse): Tu doanh thu → Ngan sach Dung khi: "Toi muon dat 200 trieu/thang — can bao nhieu tien ads?" ``` Doanh thu muc tieu / AOV (gia tri don trung binh) = SO DON CAN / Ti le Booking→Customer = SO BOOKING CAN / Ti le Lead→Booking = SO LEAD CAN / Ti le Mess→Lead = SO TIN NHAN CAN x CPMess = NGAN SACH ADS CAN ``` ### Huong 2 — Tinh xuoi (Forward): Tu ngan sach → Doanh thu Dung khi: "Toi co 50 trieu — chay duoc bao nhieu don?" ``` Ngan sach / CPMess = SO TIN NHAN DU KIEN x Ti le Mess→Lead = SO LEAD DU KIEN x Ti le Lead→Booking = SO BOOKING DU KIEN x Ti le Booking→Customer = SO DON DU KIEN x AOV = DOANH THU DU KIEN ``` --- ## Benchmark Vietnam 2025–2026 ### Ti le chuyen doi theo nganh | Buoc | Trung binh chung | Beauty & Spa | F&B | Education | E-commerce | BDS | |------|-----------------|-------------|-----|-----------|-----------|-----| | Mess→Lead | 50–60% | 55–65% | 45–55% | 40–50% | N/A | 35–45% | | Lead→Booking | 50–60% | 55–65% | 40–55% | N/A | N/A | 10–20% | | Booking→Customer | 30–40% | 40–55% | N/A | 5–15% | 1–3% | 5–15% | | Customer→Re-purchase (90d) | 15–25% | 20–35% | 25–40% | N/A | 10–20% | N/A | ### CPMess / CPL theo kenh | Kenh | CPMess Kem | CPMess TB | CPMess Tot | CPMess Xuat sac | |------|-----------|----------|-----------|----------------| | Meta (Facebook + IG) | >40K | 25–40K | 18–25K | <18K | | TikTok | >45K | 28–45K | 20–28K | <20K | | Google (CPL) | >200K | 85–150K | 50–85K | <50K | | Zalo (CPMess broadcast) | N/A | ~500d/mess | ~300d/mess | <200d/mess | ### Luu y mua vu | Thoi diem | Anh huong CPM | |-----------|-------------| | Tet Nguyen Dan (T1–T2) | +30–50% | | Black Friday / 11.11 / 12.12 | +20–30% | | He (T6–T8) | +10–15% | | Thang binh thuong | Baseline | --- ## Bang tinh 3 kich ban ### Cau truc 3 kich ban | Chi so | Pessimistic (Xau) | Base (Co so) | Optimistic (Tot) | |--------|-------------------|-------------|------------------| | CPMess | TB nganh + 30% | TB nganh | TB nganh - 20% | | Mess→Lead | TB nganh - 15% | TB nganh | TB nganh + 15% | | Lead→Booking | TB nganh - 10% | TB nganh | TB nganh + 10% | | Booking→Customer | TB nganh - 10% | TB nganh | TB nganh + 10% | ### Template bang tinh (vi du: Spa, AOV 500K, muc tieu 200 trieu/thang) | Buoc | Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |------|-------------|------|-----------| | Doanh thu muc tieu | 200,000,000 | 200,000,000 | 200,000,000 | | AOV | 500,000 | 500,000 | 500,000 | | **So don can** | **400** | **400** | **400** | | Booking→Customer | 36% | 45% | 55% | | **So booking can** | **1,111** | **889** | **727** | | Lead→Booking | 47% | 60% | 69% | | **So lead can** | **2,364** | **1,481** | **1,054** | | Mess→Lead | 47% | 60% | 69% | | **So tin nhan can** | **5,030** | **2,469** | **1,527** | | CPMess | 39,000 | 30,000 | 24,000 | | **Ngan sach ads** | **196,170,000** | **74,070,000** | **36,648,000** | | **ROAS du kien** | **1.02x** | **2.70x** | **5.46x** | ### Doc ket qua - Pessimistic: Can ~196 trieu ads cho 200 trieu doanh thu — ROAS <1, lo - Base: Can ~74 trieu ads — ROAS 2.7x, chap nhan duoc - Optimistic: Can ~37 trieu ads — ROAS 5.5x, rat tot **Dung so Base de lap ke hoach. Dung so Pessimistic de du phong. Dung so Optimistic de dat muc tieu toi uu.** --- ## Sensitivity Analysis (Phan tich do nhay) Bien nao anh huong nhieu nhat? Tang/giam 10% moi bien va xem ngan sach thay doi bao nhieu: ### Template | Bien | Gia tri Base | Thay doi +10% | Ngan sach moi | Thay doi ngan sach | |------|-------------|--------------|--------------|-------------------| | CPMess | 30K | 33K | +10% | **Truc tiep 1:1** | | Mess→Lead | 60% | 66% | -9% | **Anh huong lon** | | Lead→Booking | 60% | 66% | -9% | **Anh huong lon** | | Booking→Customer | 45% | 49.5% | -9% | **Anh huong lon** | | AOV | 500K | 550K | -9% (it don hon) | Gian tiep | ### Nhan dinh **Quy tac 80/20:** Thuong 2 bien anh huong nhieu nhat la: 1. **CPMess** — phu thuoc creative + targeting → toi uu bang A/B test ads 2. **Mess→Lead** — phu thuoc chat luong tu van → toi uu bang script chot + toc do reply **Bien de cai thien nhat:** [Xep hang tu de den kho] | Bien | Muc do cai thien | Cach cai thien | |------|------------------|---------------| | CPMess | De — test creative | A/B test 3–5 creative/tuan, doi hook, doi format | | Mess→Lead | De — cai script | Training team, script chuan, reply <5 phut | | Lead→Booking | Trung binh — cai quy trinh | Follow-up 3 lan, noi dung nurture, uu dai | | Booking→Customer | Kho — cai trai nghiem | Chat luong dich vu, first impression, upsell | --- ## Break-even (Diem hoa von) ### Cong thuc ``` Break-even don = Chi phi co dinh / (AOV - Chi phi bien doi moi don) Break-even ngay = Break-even don / So don trung binh moi ngay ``` ### Template break-even | Hang muc | Gia tri | |---------|---------| | **Chi phi co dinh/thang** | | | — Ngan sach ads | [X] | | — Content production | [X] | | — Nhan su MKT | [X] | | — Tool (CRM, email, design) | [X] | | — UGC/KOL | [X] | | **Tong chi phi co dinh** | **[X]** | | **AOV** | [X] | | **Chi phi bien doi/don** | [X] (van chuyen, hoa hong, COGS) | | **Loi nhuan/don** | AOV - Chi phi bien doi = [X] | | **Break-even don** | Tong CF co dinh / Loi nhuan moi don = **[X don]** | | **Break-even ngay** | Break-even don / 30 = **[X ngay]** | ### Danh gia | Ket qua | Y nghia | Hanh dong | |---------|---------|----------| | Break-even < 50% so don du kien | An toan — du bien do loi nhuan | Co the scale ngan sach | | Break-even = 50–80% so don du kien | Chat — it du bien do | Toi uu chi phi truoc khi scale | | Break-even > 80% so don du kien | Rui ro cao — de lo | Giam chi phi hoac tang AOV | --- ## Phan bo ngan sach theo giai doan ### 4 giai doan chien dich | Giai doan | % Ngan sach | Thoi gian | Muc dich | KPI chinh | |-----------|-----------|-----------|----------|----------| | **Teasing** | 15% | Tuan 1 | Gay to mo, xay awareness | Reach, Video View, Save | | **Bung nhe** | 20% | Tuan 2 | Test creative, thu lead dau tien | CPMess, Lead, A/B test | | **Bung manh** | 40% | Tuan 3–4 | Scale creative thang, chot don | ROAS, So don, Revenue | | **Duy tri** | 25% | Tuan 5+ | Retarget, nurture, re-purchase | CPA, LTV, Retention | ### Template phan bo Vi du: Ngan sach 80 trieu/thang | Giai doan | % | So tien | Tuan | Ngan sach/ngay | |-----------|---|--------|------|---------------| | Teasing | 15% | 12,000,000 | Tuan 1 (7 ngay) | 1,714,000/ngay | | Bung nhe | 20% | 16,000,000 | Tuan 2 (7 ngay) | 2,286,000/ngay | | Bung manh | 40% | 32,000,000 | Tuan 3–4 (14 ngay) | 2,286,000/ngay | | Duy tri | 25% | 20,000,000 | Tuan 5+ (con lai) | Tuy so ngay | --- ## Phan bo ngan sach theo kenh ### Khuyen nghi theo nganh | Kenh | Beauty/Spa | F&B | Education | E-commerce | BDS | |------|-----------|-----|-----------|-----------|-----| | Meta (Facebook + IG) | 50–60% | 40–50% | 45–55% | 35–45% | 50–60% | | TikTok | 25–35% | 30–40% | 20–30% | 35–45% | 10–20% | | Google | 10–15% | 5–10% | 20–30% | 15–20% | 25–35% | | Zalo OA | 5–10% | 5–10% | 5–10% | 0–5% | 5–10% | ### Nguyen tac phan bo 1. **Kenh da chung minh hieu qua → 60–70% ngan sach.** Khong dan deu. 2. **Kenh moi / test → 15–20% ngan sach.** Du de co du lieu, khong qua nhieu de mat tien. 3. **Retarget → 10–15% ngan sach.** Nham lai nguoi da tuong tac — thuong ROAS cao nhat. 4. **Chuyen kenh khi ROAS < 2x sau 2 tuan.** Khong cho doi qua lau. ### Template phan bo thang | Kenh | % Ngan sach | So tien | KPI muc tieu | KPI do luong | |------|-----------|--------|-------------|-------------| | Meta — Reach/Awareness | [X]% | | Reach, Video View | CPM, CPV | | Meta — Conversion | [X]% | | Mess, Lead | CPMess, CPL | | Meta — Retarget | [X]% | | Don hang | ROAS, CPA | | TikTok — Reach | [X]% | | View, Follower | CPV, Cost/Follower | | TikTok — Conversion | [X]% | | Mess, Lead | CPMess | | Google — Search | [X]% | | Click, Lead | CPC, CPL, Conv rate | | Zalo OA | [X]% | | Read, Click | Cost/mess, Read rate | | **Tong** | **100%** | | | | --- ## ROI Projection Timeline ### Khi nao thay ket qua? | Giai doan | Thoi gian | Ky vong | Chi so theo doi | |-----------|-----------|---------|----------------| | Testing | Tuan 1–2 | Chua co don, dang test creative + audience | CPM, CTR, CPMess | | First results | Tuan 3–4 | Don dau tien, ROAS con thap | So mess, so lead, don dau | | Optimization | Thang 2 | ROAS cai thien, bat dau on dinh | ROAS, CPA | | Scale | Thang 3+ | ROAS on dinh, tang ngan sach co kiem soat | ROAS duy tri, Revenue tang | | Mature | Thang 6+ | he thong tu chay, co data du de forecast | LTV, Retention, Organic % | ### Quy tac ngon tay cai | Quy tac | Giai thich | |---------|-----------| | 2 tuan dau = mat tien | Day la chi phi hoc — dung hoang, dung tat ads | | ROAS Base dat o thang 2 | Thang 1 la thang test — khong danh gia ROAS thang 1 | | Tang ngan sach toi da 20%/tuan | Tang nhanh hon = performance giam, CPM tang | | ROAS giam 30% khi scale | Binh thuong — audience rong hon = ti le chuyen doi thap hon | | Retarget ROAS cao gap 2–3x Prospecting | Dung de nham, retarget luon la kenh ROAS tot nhat | --- ## Cross-reference - Can ke hoach tong the chua? → Dung `00-ke-hoach-mkt` truoc, roi quay lai tinh KPI - Can bao cao hieu suat hien tai de dieu chinh? → Dung `03-danh-gia-hieu-suat` hoac `07-bao-cao-marketing` - Can biet doi thu chi bao nhieu? → Dung `08-nghien-cuu-doi-thu` - Can hieu khach hang de tinh ti le chuyen doi chinh xac hon? → Dung `09-insight-khach-hang` - Can phan tich du lieu sau khi chay? → Dung `13-phan-tich-du-lieu` --- ## Checklist chat luong Truoc khi giao bao cao, kiem tra: - [ ] Da xac dinh dung huong tinh (nguoc tu doanh thu hay xuoi tu ngan sach) - [ ] Benchmark dung nganh, dung kenh — khong dung so chung - [ ] Co du 3 kich ban: Pessimistic, Base, Optimistic - [ ] Sensitivity analysis chi ra bien nao anh huong nhieu nhat + cach cai thien - [ ] Break-even duoc tinh va danh gia muc do rui ro - [ ] Phan bo ngan sach theo giai doan co timeline cu the (tuan/thang) - [ ] Phan bo kenh co ty le phu hop voi nganh va muc tieu - [ ] ROI timeline thuc te — khong hua ROAS cao tu tuan 1 - [ ] Tong ngan sach khop giua cac bang (giai doan + kenh + tong = khop nhau) - [ ] Co ghi chu mua vu neu chien dich roi vao dip dac biet (Tet, 11.11, etc.)